First forecasts for the 2013 wheat harvest point to production increasing to 690 million tonnes - 4.3 percent up on 2012. This would be the second largest crop on record, according to the latest issue of FAO's quarterly Crop Prospects and Food Situation report.
Agricultural Investments News
The
production hike is expected mostly in Europe, driven by increased plantings in
response to high prices and a recovery in yields in some countries, notably the
Russian Federation.
The outlook
in the United States, while less favourable because of earlier drought
conditions, has improved somewhat over the last few weeks.
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| The production hike is expected mostly in Europe |
Meanwhile,
the recently lower prices of wheat and, to some extent, maize kept the FAO Food
Price Index - also published today -- unchanged at 210 points for the second
consecutive month in February. That is 2.5 percent, or five points, less than
in February 2012.
Since
November 2012 the Index has moved within a narrow 210 - 212 point range as
increases in the prices of dairy products and oils/fats were largely balanced
out by declines in the prices of cereals and sugar.
Too early
for global cereals forecast
At this
stage of the season, with the bulk of the coarse grains and paddy crops yet to
be planted it is still too early for even a preliminary global cereal forecast
for 2013.
But
prospects for the first 2013 coarse grains crops in the southern hemisphere are
generally favourable. Rice prospects are also encouraging in several countries
below the equator.
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| Rice prospects are also encouraging in countries below the equator |
The Crop
Prospects and Food Situation report focuses on developments affecting the food
security situation of developing countries. In its review of food insecurity hot spots the report highlights the following countries, among others:
Syria,
where an estimated 4 million people are in urgent need of food and livelihood
assistance as severe civil conflict continues.
In addition, the Syrian refugees are putting strain on other countries
in the region. Some international food assistance is being provided.
Democratic
People's Republic of Korea, where a dry spell in May-June 2012 followed by
localized floods in July-August cut crop production and damaged agricultural
infrastructure. Chronic food insecurity exists in the country, with 2.8 million
severely vulnerable people requiring food assistance during the 2012-13.
Escalating
conflict
In the
Democratic Republic of the Congo escalating conflict has increased the total
number of internally displaced people to an estimated 2.7 million. Agricultural
activities have been hindered, especially in the eastern areas, while high food
prices continue. Nationally, a total of 6.4 million people are estimated to be
in a state of food and livelihood crisis.
Mali, where
insecurity in the northern part of the country has disrupted food commodity
flows and resulted in large population displacements. This has worsened the
already precarious food situation created by drought in 2011.
Sudan,
where about 3.5 million people are estimated to be in need of humanitarian
assistance, mainly in conflict areas.
Regarding
international food prices, FAO's Cereal Price Index averaged 245 points in
February, down by just less than 1 percent from January but still 8 percent
higher than in February 2012.
The FAO
Oils/Fats Price Index averaged 206 points in February, up 0.4 percent from
January. The rise was driven by palm oil, mainly reflecting the expected
seasonal production slowdown and reduction in inventories from their current
high levels.
The FAO
Dairy Price Index averaged 203 points in February, 2.4 percent, or 5 points up
from January, representing the most
substantial increase since September 2012. The rise was principally a
reflection of falling production in Oceania due to hot weather.
The FAO
Meat Price Index averaged 178 points in February, the same as January. Poultry prices were slightly lower and pork
marginally higher, while other types of meat remained largely unchanged. The meat index has remained substantially
stable since October 2012.
The FAO
Sugar Price Index averaged 259 points in February, down 3 percent, or 8.6
points, from January. Prices declined for the fourth consecutive month, on the
expectation of a relatively large world production surplus and improved export
availabilities in 2012-13.
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